University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Reading List

This reading list contains papers, reports, and books that are recommended for the course in addition to those listed on the Reference List. Specific readings will be assigned during the semester. Many of the reports are available on the web. For these reports one should visit the homepage of the organization cited. Papers published in journals are available in the University of Illinois Library, especially the ACDIS Library. The journals Defense Analysis, Science and Global Security, and Military Operations Research contain several of the articles below. The September 1997 issue of PHALANX, The Bulletin of Military Operations Research, contains several articles of interest on analysis of complex systems, chaos and non-monotonicity of model outcomes, and theater missile defense by authors at the RAND Corporation, U.S. Marine Corps, and University of Illinois. The issue will be given to students enrolled in the course. Another publication of interest is the September 2000 issue of Military Operations Research on Warfare Analysis and Complexity – the New Sciences. This special issue resulted from a mini-symposium and workshop held at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in September 1997.

  1. Congressional Budget Office, CBO Paper – Budgetary and Technical Implications of the Administration’s Plan for National Missile Defense, April 2000.

    2. This is a recent report on the costs and technical problems of a national missile defense system.

  2. Dewar, J., Gillogly, J., and Junesca, M., "Nonmonotonicity, chaos, and combat models," Military Operations Research Vol. 2, No. 2 (1996), pp. 34-48.
  3. Eckler, A.R., and Burr, S.A., Mathematical Models of Target Coverage and Missile Allocation, Military Operations Research Society, Alexandria VA (1972).

    4. This book is one of the first comprehensive studies of ballistic missile defense. It predates the strategic defense initiative of U.S. president Ronald Reagan. Simplified models are presented to aid in formulating and discussing the general problem of ballistic missile defense. The book is available through the Defense Technical Information Center (A953 517) for a nominal cost. Specific sections on probability and game theory will be assigned reading.

  4. Fitzgerald, F., Way Out There in the Blue – Reagan, Star Wars, and the End of the Cold War, Simon & Schuster, N.Y., 2000.

    5. This is a new book on the history of the strategic defense initiative of U.S. president Ronald Reagan.

  5. Ford, J., "How random is a coin toss?," Physics Today, April 1983, pp. 1-8.

    6. Joe Ford writes about the statistical nature of reality in an interesting and thought provoking article.

  6. Forden, G.E., The airborne laser: shooting down what’s going up, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 1997.
  7. Gompert, D.C., and Isaacson, J.A., Issue Paper – Planning a ballistic missile defense system of systems, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica CA 2000.
  8. Kline, B.J., "An application of the Monte Carlo method that’s right on target," preprint, 1998.
  9. Krulak, C.C., "A challenge to analysts in complex, uncertain times," PHALANX, The Bulletin of Military Operations Research, Vol. 30, No. 3 (September) 1997, pp. 1, 30-31.
  10. Lanchester, F.W., "Mathematics in warfare," originally published in 1914 and reprinted in The World of Mathematics, edited by O. Newman, pp. 2136-2157.

    11. This paper establishes the well-known Lanchester square-law (a first integral) of the linear attrition differential equations he developed.

  11. Lauren, M.K., "Modeling combat using fractals and the statistics of scaling systems," Military Operations Research, special issue on Warfare Analysis and Complexity – The New Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 3 (September) 2000.
  12. Melese, F., and Palmore, J., "Ballistic missile defense: protection or placebo?," Defense Analysis Vol. 16, No. 1 (April) 2000, pp. 89-98.
  13. Morse, P.M., and Kimball, G.E., "How to hunt a submarine," reprinted in The World of Mathematics, edited by O. Newman, pp. 2160-2179.
  14. Palmore, J., "Dynamical instability in combat models: computer arithmetic and mathematical models of attrition and reinforcement," Military Operations Research Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring) 1996, pp. 45-52.
  15. Palmore, J., "National missile defense – ready or not … it’s coming!," PHALANX, The Bulletin of Military Operations Research, Vol. 32, No. 2 (June) 1999, pp. 1, 24-26.
  16. Palmore, J., "Theater missile defense: origins and expectations," PHALANX, The Bulletin of Military Operations Research, Vol. 30, No. 3 (September) 1997, pp. 6-9.
  17. Sullivan, J., Fenstermacher, D., Fisher, D., Howes, R., Judd, O., and Speed, R., "Technical debate over Patriot performance in the Gulf War," Science and Global Security, 1999, pp. 41-98.
  18. U.S. Army Field Manual FM 8-10-7 Chapter 2 Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Effects.
  19. Wilkening, D.A., "A simple model for calculating ballistic missile defense effectiveness," Science and Global Security Vol. 8, 2000, pp. 183-215.
  20. Young, S.W., Pushing the limits – the decision on national missile defense, Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers and Council for a Livable World Education Fund, April 2000.

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Last modified September 9, 2003